Betting Lines
| Spread | CLT -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | CLT -250 UVU +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CLT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CLT +17 | 107 | Won |
| Massey | UVU -0.3 (+17.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.3 (-31.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 14% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CLT -0.1 (+16.9) | 137.4 (-30.4) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CLT -4.0 (+13.0) | 136.8 (-29.8) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CLT -3.1 (+13.9) | 126.2 (-19.2) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CLT | UVU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-12 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 11-9 |
| Home | 13-2 | 10-4 |
| Away | 5-7 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.0 | 67.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 69.0 |
| Massey | -2.6 (#235) | 7.6 (#48) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.84 (#263) | 2.88 (#7) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.26 (#264) | 4.38 (#5) |
| RPI | 0.219 (#336) | 0.625 (#83) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CLT | UVU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.5% | 53.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 15.8% |
| REB / G | 30.5 | 47.0 |
| OREB / G | 5.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.3% | 56.0% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 24.4% |
| ORB% | 20.4% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 39.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.9% | 12.4% |
| DRB% | 76.1% | 88.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 11.9% | 41.0% |
Game Analysis
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