Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | LOU -1600 COPP +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +20 | 102 | Won |
| Massey | LOU -16.1 (+3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.7 (-58.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -9.5 (+10.5) | 147.3 (-45.3) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -9.8 (+10.2) | 150.5 (-48.5) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -9.4 (+10.6) | 145.3 (-43.3) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | COPP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-24 | 2-27 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 1-13 |
| Home | 7-11 | 2-8 |
| Away | 1-10 | 0-17 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L8 | L13 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 57.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.1 | 72.8 |
| Massey | -10.2 (#331) | -16.4 (#354) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.22 (#287) | -2.41 (#345) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.02 (#302) | -3.64 (#345) |
| RPI | 0.450 (#227) | 0.236 (#329) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | COPP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 35.3% |
| 3PT% | 25.0% | 23.7% |
| REB / G | 44.0 | 22.0 |
| OREB / G | 18.5 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.69 | 0.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 39.7% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 41.6% | 16.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.3% | 55.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 23.7% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 50.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 32.5% |
Game Analysis
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