Betting Lines
| Spread | FRES -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | FRES -2500 MORG +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FRES +19 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | FRES -24.5 (-5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.5 (+2.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FRES -13.4 (+5.6) | 150.1 (+4.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FRES -13.8 (+5.2) | 146.6 (+8.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FRES -16.2 (+2.8) | 145.5 (+9.5) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 7-7 |
| Home | 7-9 | 8-5 |
| Away | 3-9 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 80.0 |
| Massey | -1.2 (#202) | -15.8 (#352) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.06 (#278) | -0.09 (#175) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.68 (#286) | -0.08 (#178) |
| RPI | 0.250 (#315) | 0.688 (#57) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 60.0% | 39.3% |
| 3PT% | 43.8% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 27.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.68 | 0.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 67.8% | 45.5% |
| TOV% | 32.8% | 31.6% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 17.8% | 14.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.8% | 63.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 9.2% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 45.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 34.2% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.