Betting Lines
| Spread | BC -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | BC -195 RICH +162 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BC +7 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | BC -6.4 (+0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.9 (-23.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BC -5.0 (+2.0) | 146.8 (-17.8) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BC -5.9 (+1.1) | 147.7 (-18.7) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BC -7.0 (-0.0) | 148.6 (-19.6) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BC -8.6 (-1.6) | 150.3 (-21.3) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BC | RICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-16 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 15-3 |
| Home | 10-6 | 15-1 |
| Away | 7-7 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 66.3 |
| Massey | 7.3 (#51) | 10.8 (#25) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.77 (#35) | 0.80 (#111) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.38 (#45) | 1.03 (#113) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#169) | 0.562 (#122) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BC | RICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.2% | 51.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 41.8% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 2.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.1% | 61.1% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 10.5% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 24.6% |
| FT Rate | 15.0% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 25.0% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.1% | 11.3% |
Game Analysis
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