Betting Lines
| Spread | ECU -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | ECU -800 UPST +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ECU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UPST +2 | 164 | Lost |
| Massey | ECU -17.4 (-19.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.1 (+11.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ECU -15.6 (-17.6) | 145.4 (+18.6) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ECU -18.3 (-20.3) | 143.6 (+20.4) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ECU -15.0 (-17.0) | 142.9 (+21.1) | 87% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ECU | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 10-20 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 5-11 |
| Home | 11-9 | 6-7 |
| Away | 3-7 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 74.8 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#138) | -5.9 (#291) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.47 (#137) | -0.95 (#270) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.65 (#138) | -1.34 (#270) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#122) | 0.500 (#169) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ECU | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 38.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 23.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 5.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.55 | 1.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.8% | 44.6% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 12.2% |
| ORB% | 34.3% | 14.9% |
| FT Rate | 12.7% | 13.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 59.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.4% | 22.7% |
| DRB% | 91.7% | 63.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 51.2% | 33.0% |
Game Analysis
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