They smelled of pubs and Wormwood Scrubs and too many right wing meetings. "Down in the Tube Station at Midnight" - The Jam
Yuengling Center · November 16, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread USF -17.5 Away covered
O/U 145.5 Under
Money USF -4000 / CMU +2000
Model Predictions
Spread Total USF win
Actual CMU +5 131 Lost
Massey USF -34.8 (-39.8) — —
Massey Totals — 148.5 (-17.5) —
Bradley-Terry — — 99% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 100% ✗
Baseline Tuned ML USF -24.6 (-29.6) 146.9 (-15.9) 91% ✗
Baseline ML USF -31.0 (-36.0) 149.3 (-18.3) 91% ✗
Baseline Plus ML USF -26.7 (-31.7) 148.1 (-17.1) 89% ✗

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings USF CMU
Overall 25-8 18-14
Conference 16-2 12-6
Home 15-3 10-3
Away 8-4 7-9
Neutral 2-1 1-2
Last 5 1-0 0-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 75.7 65.7
Avg Pts Against 69.3 70.2
Massey 14.0 (#11) -10.8 (#337)
Bradley-Terry 0.96 (#89) -2.19 (#340)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.80 (#69) -3.28 (#339)
RPI 1.000 (#1) 0.389 (#261)
Shooting & Four Factors USF CMU
FG% 53.1% 42.0%
3PT% 33.3% 26.5%
REB / G 37.0 30.7
OREB / G 10.0 11.7
AST / TO 2.18 0.49
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 59.4% 47.5%
TOV% 14.2% 26.9%
ORB% 30.3% 32.7%
FT Rate 31.2% 22.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 32.2% 62.1%
Opp TOV% 28.4% 19.7%
DRB% 61.4% 67.9%
Opp FT Rate 23.7% 24.3%

Game Analysis

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