Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | USF -4000 CMU +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CMU +5 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | USF -34.8 (-39.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.5 (-17.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -24.6 (-29.6) | 146.9 (-15.9) | 91% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USF -31.0 (-36.0) | 149.3 (-18.3) | 91% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -26.7 (-31.7) | 148.1 (-17.1) | 89% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 12-6 |
| Home | 15-3 | 10-3 |
| Away | 8-4 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 65.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 70.2 |
| Massey | 14.0 (#11) | -10.8 (#337) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.96 (#89) | -2.19 (#340) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.80 (#69) | -3.28 (#339) |
| RPI | 1.000 (#1) | 0.389 (#261) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 53.1% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 26.5% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 2.18 | 0.49 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.4% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 26.9% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 31.2% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 32.2% | 62.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 28.4% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 61.4% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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