Betting Lines
| Spread | ME -7.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | ME -260 NWST +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ME win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ME +13 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | ME -2.8 (+10.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.8 (-6.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ME -1.5 (+11.5) | 137.2 (+5.8) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ME -1.9 (+11.1) | 139.4 (+3.6) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ME -1.8 (+11.2) | 138.9 (+4.1) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ME -1.5 (+11.5) | 137.2 (+5.8) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ME | NWST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 7-11 |
| Home | 8-4 | 6-7 |
| Away | 5-13 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 2-0 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.2 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 76.7 |
| Massey | -7.6 (#308) | -10.4 (#334) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.35 (#344) | -2.47 (#346) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.35 (#341) | -3.88 (#350) |
| RPI | 0.000 (#355) | 0.344 (#281) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ME | NWST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.7% | 36.0% |
| 3PT% | 28.3% | 25.5% |
| REB / G | 29.0 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 14.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.49 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.7% | 41.6% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 22.8% |
| ORB% | 24.7% | 34.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 29.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.0% | 61.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 80.0% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 43.2% | 38.9% |
Game Analysis
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