Betting Lines
| Spread | OKST -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Under |
| Money | SBU +126 OKST -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SBU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SBU +2 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | OKST -1.5 (+3.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.1 (-10.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OKST -3.5 (+5.5) | 136.0 (-6.0) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OKST -1.6 (+3.6) | 136.6 (-6.6) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | OKST -1.8 (+3.8) | 134.6 (-4.6) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OKST -1.6 (+3.6) | 135.8 (-5.8) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SBU | OKST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 4-14 |
| Home | 11-4 | 10-8 |
| Away | 5-6 | 1-9 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -5.7 (#289) | -4.2 (#261) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.35 (#298) | -1.48 (#309) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.92 (#294) | -1.33 (#267) |
| RPI | 0.200 (#341) | 0.346 (#280) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SBU | OKST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.4% | 39.3% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 13.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.5% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 62.3% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 17.8% |
Game Analysis
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