Betting Lines
| Spread | AF -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | AF -1400 LIN +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AF +18 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | AF -29.5 (-11.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.4 (-4.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AF -20.1 (-2.1) | 130.6 (+3.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AF -18.2 (-0.2) | 136.0 (-2.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AF -19.6 (-1.6) | 136.1 (-2.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AF -19.3 (-1.3) | 133.7 (+0.3) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | LIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 3-15 |
| Home | 4-12 | 4-10 |
| Away | 5-8 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.2 | 63.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 74.9 |
| Massey | 4.8 (#88) | -14.7 (#350) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.14 (#160) | -0.67 (#239) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.28 (#157) | -1.04 (#247) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#166) | 0.500 (#169) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | LIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 30.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 25.0% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 0.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 35.1% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 23.8% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 22.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 16.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 61.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 11.7% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.6% | 29.5% |
Game Analysis
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