Hallelujah, here she comes. "Skateaway" - Dire Straits
← All models

Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

← Prev day Next day →
40–14 on winners spread MAE 11.8 54 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Mississippi Valley State @ UConn +42.2 163.0 100% 53–87 ✓
Duke @ Michigan State -5.7 135.9 30% 74–65 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Florida Atlantic +22.5 139.9 98% 57–100 ✓
Mercer @ Morehead State -2.5 144.3 41% 66–74 ✗
Georgia Southern @ Jacksonville +13.4 133.9 89% 68–85 ✓
Bellarmine @ Chattanooga +24.1 143.6 99% 64–72 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Indiana State +1.9 146.1 57% 57–96 ✓
Lipscomb @ Tennessee Tech +8.7 140.6 79% 96–65 ✗
Temple @ Drexel +6.1 147.1 71% 66–64 ✗
Saint Francis @ Penn State +25.0 132.0 99% 53–83 ✓
Bowling Green @ Oakland +7.8 130.8 76% 62–81 ✓
Colgate @ Syracuse +17.7 153.7 95% 75–79 ✓
Wagner @ Rhode Island +10.5 149.7 83% 53–69 ✓
High Point @ Queens University +2.1 175.1 58% 72–74 ✓
Northeastern @ Harvard +18.6 155.3 95% 56–80 ✓
Hofstra @ George Washington +24.5 155.4 99% 60–71 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Holy Cross +11.8 153.6 86% 84–77 ✗
Toledo @ Wright State +1.2 165.5 54% 78–77 ✗
Stonehill @ Saint Joseph's +23.9 131.5 99% 56–100 ✓
Florida A&M @ Florida +31.1 155.5 100% 68–89 ✓
Jacksonville State @ West Virginia +9.6 142.2 81% 57–70 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Virginia +31.8 144.2 100% 51–80 ✓
Brown @ New Hampshire +14.7 144.5 91% 64–82 ✓
Boston University @ Howard +17.8 144.8 95% 53–64 ✓
North Alabama @ Mississippi State +15.6 146.1 92% 54–81 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Georgia Tech -1.9 145.3 43% 74–71 ✓
Marquette @ Illinois +6.2 141.0 71% 71–64 ✗
Texas A&M @ SMU +6.0 136.4 71% 79–66 ✗
South Alabama @ Alabama +11.5 151.8 85% 46–102 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Abilene Christian +14.7 137.8 91% 79–74 ✗
Alcorn State @ Arkansas State +17.8 161.3 95% 86–100 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Vanderbilt +5.3 151.6 69% 70–74 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Ole Miss +21.6 138.7 98% 69–70 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Murray State +4.8 148.3 67% 86–81 ✗
Green Bay @ Valparaiso +10.4 129.9 83% 59–64 ✓
Tarleton State @ Bradley +11.5 138.8 85% 63–86 ✓
Texas State @ Oklahoma +9.7 132.0 81% 54–93 ✓
UTSA @ Lamar +20.1 154.7 97% 82–90 ✓
Western Michigan @ Northwestern +19.0 148.2 96% 59–63 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ TCU +29.5 166.0 100% 55–88 ✓
UIC @ Loyola Chicago +7.7 143.3 76% 72–67 ✗
Cal State Northridge @ Chicago State +2.5 140.5 59% 74–64 ✗
Milwaukee @ Colorado +19.4 153.1 96% 79–106 ✓
South Dakota @ DePaul -3.9 159.1 36% 60–72 ✗
Southern Utah @ Utah State +14.6 145.8 91% 84–93 ✓
Santa Clara @ Stanford +13.6 157.1 89% 89–77 ✗
Kentucky @ Kansas +9.5 154.2 81% 84–89 ✓
Iowa @ Creighton +13.7 168.2 89% 84–92 ✓
Long Beach State @ San Diego State +14.0 141.9 90% 76–88 ✓
Jackson State @ Loyola Marymount +6.8 161.8 73% 66–88 ✓
App State @ Oregon State +8.6 159.7 78% 71–81 ✓
UC Irvine @ USC +17.4 155.2 94% 70–60 ✗
Campbell @ Virginia Tech +17.4 143.5 94% 44–60 ✓
UAlbany @ Seton Hall +18.3 142.2 95% 71–96 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.