Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -2.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | ILL -140 MARQ +118 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MARQ +7 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | ILL -5.1 (-12.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.5 (-6.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -3.3 (-10.3) | 139.8 (-4.8) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -4.9 (-11.9) | 138.9 (-3.9) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -5.4 (-12.4) | 138.1 (-3.1) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 16, 2021 | MARQ 67 – 66 ILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-9 | 27-10 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 14-6 |
| Home | 15-3 | 14-2 |
| Away | 6-5 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 8-1 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.4 | 78.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 69.8 |
| Massey | 3.1 (#114) | 8.7 (#31) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.50 (#132) | 0.87 (#92) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.60 (#138) | 1.32 (#84) |
| RPI | 0.375 (#244) | 0.750 (#27) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 53.5% |
| 3PT% | 29.8% | 40.0% |
| REB / G | 43.0 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 2.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 62.0% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 12.2% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 17.7% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 36.4% | 42.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.5% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 64.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 11.2% | 14.0% |
Game Analysis
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