Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MARQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MARQ +1 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -1.3 (+2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.5 (-12.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -0.3 (+1.3) | 143.6 (-10.6) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -0.2 (+1.2) | 142.2 (-9.2) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -0.3 (+1.3) | 145.4 (-12.4) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 15, 2023 | MARQ 71 – 64 ILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MARQ | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 11-8 | 15-5 |
| Home | 13-3 | 13-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 74.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 67.2 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#198) | 10.9 (#16) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.74 (#93) | 0.70 (#101) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.96 (#102) | 1.08 (#90) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#136) | 0.438 (#221) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MARQ | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 26.4% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 50.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 20.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 22.2% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 50.0% |
| FT Rate | 36.9% | 29.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 38.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.7% | 27.3% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 78.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.2% | 14.5% |
Game Analysis
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