Betting Lines
| Spread | JAX -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | JAX -225 GASO +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JAX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JAX +17 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | JAX -13.8 (+3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.6 (+19.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JAX -5.5 (+11.5) | 136.2 (+16.8) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JAX -6.2 (+10.8) | 133.5 (+19.5) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JAX -4.2 (+12.8) | 135.7 (+17.3) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 2, 2023 | JAX 81 – 79 GASO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JAX | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 9-24 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 8-10 |
| Home | 11-3 | 6-7 |
| Away | 4-14 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 79.2 |
| Massey | -2.5 (#233) | -5.6 (#285) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.53 (#225) | -0.81 (#266) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.83 (#235) | -1.18 (#269) |
| RPI | 0.375 (#244) | 0.344 (#258) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JAX | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 34.8% | 35.9% |
| 3PT% | 20.0% | 25.9% |
| REB / G | 48.0 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 20.0 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 0.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 37.1% | 42.3% |
| TOV% | 24.4% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 42.6% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 10.6% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.2% | 55.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.7% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 65.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.9% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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