Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | USU -2000 SUU +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +9 | 177 | Won |
| Massey | USU -14.4 (-5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.7 (+32.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -7.1 (+1.9) | 144.7 (+32.3) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -8.9 (+0.1) | 139.4 (+37.6) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -7.0 (+2.0) | 141.6 (+35.4) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 5-15 |
| Home | 14-1 | 6-8 |
| Away | 8-4 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 77.8 |
| Massey | 4.0 (#92) | 0.3 (#171) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.10 (#181) | -1.18 (#300) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.07 (#182) | -2.02 (#312) |
| RPI | 0.625 (#87) | 0.188 (#320) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 33.8% | 34.3% |
| 3PT% | 25.8% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 47.0 | 44.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 25.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.80 | 1.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 39.4% | 40.7% |
| TOV% | 13.2% | 12.5% |
| ORB% | 24.0% | 50.0% |
| FT Rate | 14.1% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.1% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 81.4% | 51.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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