Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | INST -5000 IUIN +3000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +39 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | INST -2.2 (+36.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.8 (+6.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -0.0 (+39.0) | 143.4 (+9.6) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | INST -2.0 (+37.0) | 142.2 (+10.8) | 36% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | IUIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-7 | 6-26 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 2-18 |
| Home | 16-1 | 4-10 |
| Away | 9-4 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L12 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.7 | 64.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 81.2 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#213) | 6.9 (#51) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.41 (#212) | 1.77 (#29) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#216) | 2.52 (#28) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#153) | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | IUIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.9% | 38.5% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 25.0 | 41.0 |
| OREB / G | 4.0 | 16.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.4% | 42.3% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 13.3% | 38.1% |
| FT Rate | 30.2% | 16.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 61.7% | 33.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 60.0% | 61.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.9% | 26.7% |
Game Analysis
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