Betting Lines
| Spread | WRST -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 168.5 Under |
| Money | WRST -125 TOL +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WRST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +1 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | WRST -0.8 (-1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.7 (-10.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | TOL -2.3 (+1.3) | 155.4 (-0.4) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -4.5 (+3.5) | 157.2 (-2.2) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 12, 2025 | TOL 81 – 71 WRST |
| Nov 14, 2024 | TOL 86 – 77 WRST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WRST | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 14-4 |
| Home | 9-7 | 12-3 |
| Away | 7-6 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.2 | 80.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.8 | 76.1 |
| Massey | -6.8 (#306) | 3.0 (#116) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.40 (#209) | 0.87 (#91) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.61 (#218) | 1.25 (#89) |
| RPI | — | 0.688 (#63) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WRST | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.0% | 53.8% |
| 3PT% | 40.0% | 51.7% |
| REB / G | 27.0 | 29.5 |
| OREB / G | 6.0 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.53 | 1.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.2% | 60.3% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 12.8% |
| ORB% | 18.2% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 34.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 72.7% | 60.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 11.8% | 29.0% |
| DRB% | 84.0% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.6% | 6.5% |
Game Analysis
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