Betting Lines
| Spread | WRST -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Under |
| Money | WRST -240 TOL +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WRST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +10 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | WRST -27.6 (-37.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.7 (-0.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | WRST -14.5 (-24.5) | 144.7 (+7.3) | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WRST -16.0 (-26.0) | 143.9 (+8.1) | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WRST -13.5 (-23.5) | 142.5 (+9.5) | 86% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 14, 2024 | TOL 86 – 77 WRST |
| Nov 15, 2023 | TOL 78 – 77 WRST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WRST | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-12 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-5 | 11-4 |
| Away | 9-5 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.8 | 79.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 77.4 |
| Massey | 4.3 (#100) | -10.8 (#337) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.34 (#197) | -2.19 (#342) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.42 (#195) | -2.77 (#336) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#136) | 0.562 (#106) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WRST | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.5% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 26.5% | 40.4% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.5% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 11.5% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 15.6% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 61.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.3% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 63.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 47.3% | 10.7% |
Game Analysis
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