Betting Lines
| Spread | VAN -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | VAN +100 UNCG +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAN +4 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | VAN -5.7 (-1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.9 (-7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAN -2.7 (+1.3) | 146.6 (-2.6) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAN -3.9 (+0.1) | 147.2 (-3.2) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAN -3.3 (+0.7) | 142.5 (+1.5) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAN | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 12-6 |
| Home | 8-10 | 11-3 |
| Away | 1-9 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.9 | 70.7 |
| Massey | -8.0 (#315) | -3.0 (#243) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.09 (#290) | 0.42 (#141) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.48 (#289) | 0.59 (#141) |
| RPI | 0.450 (#213) | 0.500 (#153) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAN | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.7% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.1% | 51.7% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 49.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 19.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.63 | 1.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 57.6% |
| TOV% | 22.7% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 38.9% | 50.0% |
| FT Rate | 35.8% | 15.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 11.1% |
| DRB% | 85.2% | 76.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 32.2% |
Game Analysis
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