Betting Lines
| Spread | BRAD -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | BRAD -500 TAR +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BRAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRAD +23 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | BRAD -10.0 (+13.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.9 (+10.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRAD -7.3 (+15.7) | 140.7 (+8.3) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BRAD -6.6 (+16.4) | 139.7 (+9.3) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRAD -8.3 (+14.7) | 140.5 (+8.5) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BRAD | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-12 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 16-4 |
| Home | 14-3 | 13-4 |
| Away | 6-7 | 10-5 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 70.2 |
| Massey | 3.3 (#110) | 3.9 (#95) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.48 (#9) | 1.29 (#51) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.38 (#13) | 1.85 (#52) |
| RPI | 0.729 (#52) | 0.592 (#100) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BRAD | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 27.8% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 43.5 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 29.5% |
| ORB% | 20.5% | 36.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 37.6% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.8% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 33.3% |
Game Analysis
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