Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | ARST -600 ALCN +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +14 | 186 | Won |
| Massey | ARST -16.2 (-2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.3 (+24.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -7.2 (+6.8) | 152.2 (+33.8) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -8.0 (+6.0) | 153.6 (+32.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -6.7 (+7.3) | 149.1 (+36.9) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARST | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-17 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 13-5 |
| Home | 10-3 | 7-3 |
| Away | 5-11 | 7-14 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 77.9 |
| Massey | -3.2 (#246) | -8.7 (#324) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.26 (#306) | -0.36 (#204) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.02 (#310) | -0.55 (#208) |
| RPI | 0.365 (#252) | 0.500 (#153) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARST | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 39.2% |
| 3PT% | 25.6% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 26.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 42.2% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 22.1% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 18.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 31.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 62.5% | 63.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.4% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 75.4% | 57.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.0% | 46.3% |
Game Analysis
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