Betting Lines
| Spread | URI -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | URI -600 WAG +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | URI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | URI +16 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | URI -10.6 (+5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.0 (-28.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | URI -9.7 (+6.3) | 145.5 (-23.5) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | URI -14.6 (+1.4) | 145.6 (-23.6) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | URI -9.9 (+6.1) | 144.3 (-22.3) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | URI | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 7-9 |
| Home | 9-8 | 7-5 |
| Away | 3-8 | 9-10 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 62.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 64.1 |
| Massey | 1.1 (#155) | 1.3 (#150) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.69 (#113) | -0.98 (#283) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.94 (#114) | -1.34 (#280) |
| RPI | 0.438 (#221) | 0.250 (#287) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | URI | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 54.1% | 38.7% |
| 3PT% | 42.4% | 23.5% |
| REB / G | 42.5 | 44.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 17.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 0.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.8% | 41.9% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 23.2% |
| ORB% | 41.2% | 41.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.9% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 66.3% | 64.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 13.1% |
Game Analysis
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