Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -21.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.0 Under |
| Money | ALA -3500 USA +1350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +56 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -12.7 (+43.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.1 (-4.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -9.5 (+46.5) | 144.5 (+3.5) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -13.6 (+42.4) | 146.5 (+1.5) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -20.6 (+35.4) | 143.5 (+4.5) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 16, 2022 | ALA 65 – 55 USA |
| Nov 17, 2021 | ALA 73 – 68 USA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | USA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-12 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 8-10 |
| Home | 14-2 | 11-6 |
| Away | 5-5 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 6-5 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 90.1 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.2 | 75.9 |
| Massey | 8.2 (#36) | 6.1 (#60) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.75 (#106) | 1.21 (#57) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.09 (#99) | 1.70 (#58) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#153) | 0.250 (#287) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | USA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 53.7% | 57.1% |
| 3PT% | 50.0% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 4.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 0.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 63.2% | 61.2% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 23.3% |
| ORB% | 43.1% | 15.4% |
| FT Rate | 44.6% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.9% | 40.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 76.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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