Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | USA +700 ALA -900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +10 | 120 | Lost |
| Massey | USA -0.3 (-10.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.2 (-21.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -1.7 (-8.3) | 142.3 (-22.3) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -2.5 (-7.5) | 143.0 (-23.0) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 15, 2023 | ALA 102 – 46 USA |
| Nov 17, 2021 | ALA 73 – 68 USA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 31-6 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 16-2 |
| Home | 10-4 | 15-0 |
| Away | 4-10 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 7-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 81.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.8 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#157) | 11.0 (#19) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.38 (#214) | 0.78 (#92) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.46 (#205) | 1.17 (#84) |
| RPI | — | 0.656 (#81) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.8% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 26.0% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 56.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.0 | 17.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.6% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 22.5% |
| ORB% | 20.0% | 44.2% |
| FT Rate | 8.2% | 40.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 34.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 8.2% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 81.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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