Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -21.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +5 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -15.9 (-10.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.7 (-11.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -13.6 (-8.6) | 148.2 (-7.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -18.3 (-13.3) | 149.5 (-8.5) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -18.5 (-13.5) | 147.3 (-6.3) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 15, 2023 | ALA 102 – 46 USA |
| Nov 16, 2022 | ALA 65 – 55 USA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | USA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 9-7 |
| Home | 13-3 | 15-3 |
| Away | 3-7 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.5 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 65.7 |
| Massey | 7.0 (#55) | 1.4 (#144) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.38 (#44) | -0.34 (#208) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.10 (#41) | -0.39 (#207) |
| RPI | 0.875 (#13) | 0.750 (#27) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | USA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.3% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 18.8% |
| REB / G | 49.0 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 17.0 | 5.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.73 | 0.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.1% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 40.5% | 15.2% |
| FT Rate | 16.9% | 13.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 44.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.4% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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