Betting Lines
| Spread | LMU -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | LMU -2000 JKST +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LMU +22 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | LMU -7.1 (+14.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.4 (-7.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LMU -4.3 (+17.7) | 150.5 (+3.5) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LMU -3.7 (+18.3) | 152.4 (+1.6) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LMU | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 11-7 |
| Home | 8-8 | 6-2 |
| Away | 2-7 | 7-13 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 75.6 |
| Massey | -5.7 (#287) | -2.1 (#222) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.20 (#339) | -0.91 (#275) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.03 (#336) | -1.28 (#275) |
| RPI | — | 0.333 (#261) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LMU | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 26.0 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 5.0 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.8% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 12.6% | 22.5% |
| ORB% | 16.1% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 55.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.8% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 65.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 43.6% | 34.4% |
Game Analysis
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