Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -45.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | CONN -100000 MVSU +3300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +34 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -41.2 (-7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.5 (-23.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -28.8 (+5.2) | 152.3 (-12.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -25.8 (+8.2) | 152.5 (-12.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -39.6 (-5.6) | 154.5 (-14.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -40.1 (-6.1) | 153.6 (-13.6) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 37-3 | 1-30 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 1-17 |
| Home | 17-0 | 1-8 |
| Away | 8-3 | 0-22 |
| Neutral | 12-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Streak | W13 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 55.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.4 | 77.7 |
| Massey | 12.3 (#13) | -18.3 (#354) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.74 (#107) | -1.46 (#317) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.11 (#97) | -2.37 (#321) |
| RPI | 0.583 (#104) | 0.250 (#287) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 54.7% | 35.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 46.0 | 27.5 |
| OREB / G | 16.0 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.86 | 0.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 61.3% | 38.4% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 24.0% |
| ORB% | 47.8% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 35.2% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.2% | 61.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.1% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 76.9% | 51.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.4% | 32.0% |
Game Analysis
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