Betting Lines
| Spread | VAL -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | VAL -150 GB +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAL +5 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | VAL -9.4 (-4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.1 (-7.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAL -4.0 (+1.0) | 131.0 (-8.0) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAL -5.0 (-0.0) | 132.6 (-9.6) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | GB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 13-7 |
| Home | 6-11 | 10-5 |
| Away | 1-13 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.5 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.0 | 70.2 |
| Massey | -6.9 (#307) | -5.6 (#286) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.77 (#325) | -0.38 (#207) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.52 (#324) | -0.60 (#217) |
| RPI | — | 0.500 (#153) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | GB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 31.7% | 28.3% |
| 3PT% | 10.5% | 24.2% |
| REB / G | 42.0 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 16.0 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.57 | 0.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 33.3% | 37.0% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 25.5% |
| ORB% | 39.0% | 17.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.3% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 6.1% |
| DRB% | 61.9% | 60.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.9% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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