But anyone who ever had heart, they wouldn't turn around and break it. "Sweet Jane" - Lou Reed
Athletics-Recreation Center · November 15, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread VAL -3.5 Home covered
O/U 133.5 Under
Money VAL -150 / GB +163
Model Predictions
Spread Total VAL win
Actual VAL +5 123 Won
Massey VAL -9.4 (-4.4) — —
Massey Totals — 130.1 (-7.1) —
Bradley-Terry — — 65% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 65% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML VAL -4.0 (+1.0) 131.0 (-8.0) 65% ✓
Baseline ML VAL -5.0 (-0.0) 132.6 (-9.6) 75% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings VAL GB
Overall 7-25 18-14
Conference 3-17 13-7
Home 6-11 10-5
Away 1-13 8-8
Neutral 0-1 0-1
Last 5 0-1 0-1
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 66.5 68.6
Avg Pts Against 76.0 70.2
Massey -6.9 (#307) -5.6 (#286)
Bradley-Terry -1.77 (#325) -0.38 (#207)
W. Bradley-Terry -2.52 (#324) -0.60 (#217)
RPI — 0.500 (#153)
Shooting & Four Factors VAL GB
FG% 31.7% 28.3%
3PT% 10.5% 24.2%
REB / G 42.0 29.0
OREB / G 16.0 6.0
AST / TO 0.57 0.44
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 33.3% 37.0%
TOV% 20.9% 25.5%
ORB% 39.0% 17.1%
FT Rate 26.7% 21.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 42.3% 53.0%
Opp TOV% 16.5% 6.1%
DRB% 61.9% 60.5%
Opp FT Rate 16.9% 22.7%

Game Analysis

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