Betting Lines
| Spread | DEP -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | DEP -400 SDAK +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEP +12 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | SDAK -4.5 (+16.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.5 (-27.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 13% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDAK -5.7 (+17.7) | 150.6 (-18.6) | 27% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SDAK -6.6 (+18.6) | 149.5 (-17.5) | 30% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEP | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3-29 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 0-20 | 5-11 |
| Home | 3-15 | 8-6 |
| Away | 0-11 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L20 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.7 | 74.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.8 | 81.5 |
| Massey | -8.2 (#318) | 7.0 (#50) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.80 (#351) | 1.06 (#72) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.77 (#348) | 1.60 (#64) |
| RPI | 0.312 (#264) | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEP | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 54.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 50.0% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 62.7% |
| TOV% | 22.6% | 22.0% |
| ORB% | 20.9% | 34.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 33.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 42.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 64.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.4% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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