Betting Lines
| Spread | ACU -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | ACU -2000 PV +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ACU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PV +5 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | ACU -15.2 (-20.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.1 (+15.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ACU -7.4 (-12.4) | 136.7 (+16.3) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ACU -7.1 (-12.1) | 138.5 (+14.5) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ACU -8.6 (-13.6) | 136.3 (+16.7) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ACU -8.3 (-13.3) | 138.0 (+15.0) | 74% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ACU | PV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 5-13 |
| Home | 8-6 | 5-6 |
| Away | 5-10 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L7 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 77.3 |
| Massey | 2.8 (#118) | -1.8 (#215) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.01 (#22) | -0.71 (#254) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.79 (#8) | -0.99 (#254) |
| RPI | 0.769 (#25) | 0.500 (#153) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ACU | PV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 32.8% |
| 3PT% | 28.6% | 25.0% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 16.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.7% | 35.1% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 34.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 25.8% |
| DRB% | 67.1% | 61.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 37.4% |
Game Analysis
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