Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | USC -800 UCI +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCI +10 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | USC -16.2 (-26.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.6 (-24.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USC -9.1 (-19.1) | 149.1 (-19.1) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -12.8 (-22.8) | 148.3 (-18.3) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USC -14.2 (-24.2) | 149.0 (-19.0) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USC -13.0 (-23.0) | 152.8 (-22.8) | 75% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 16, 2021 | USC 66 – 61 UCI |
| Dec 9, 2020 | USC 91 – 56 UCI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USC | UCI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 17-3 |
| Home | 9-6 | 13-0 |
| Away | 3-9 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 68.8 |
| Massey | 5.1 (#75) | -0.4 (#188) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.42 (#43) | -0.21 (#191) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.03 (#45) | -0.30 (#194) |
| RPI | 0.760 (#26) | 0.312 (#264) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USC | UCI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 53.0% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.7% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 33.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.6% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.1% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 62.8% | 79.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 28.3% |
Game Analysis
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