Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.0 Over |
| Money | USC -600 UCI +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +35 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | USC -20.0 (+15.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.9 (+1.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USC -14.3 (+20.7) | 144.4 (+2.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -16.3 (+18.7) | 145.7 (+1.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USC -19.5 (+15.5) | 145.3 (+1.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USC -21.0 (+14.0) | 144.4 (+2.6) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 15, 2023 | UCI 70 – 60 USC |
| Dec 16, 2021 | USC 66 – 61 UCI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USC | UCI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 18-9 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 10-4 |
| Home | 13-2 | 10-1 |
| Away | 7-3 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 68.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.1 | 64.1 |
| Massey | 7.7 (#50) | -5.2 (#227) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.94 (#31) | -1.81 (#262) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.98 (#17) | -2.81 (#260) |
| RPI | 0.594 (#62) | 0.382 (#235) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USC | UCI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.3% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 43.0 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 25.3% |
| ORB% | 39.4% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 29.3% | 16.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.8% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 65.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.7% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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