Betting Lines
| Spread | GT -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | GT -175 UML +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UML +3 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | UML -2.2 (-0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.5 (-0.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GT -0.4 (-3.4) | 141.9 (+3.1) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GT -5.9 (-8.9) | 142.5 (+2.5) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GT -3.3 (-6.3) | 150.3 (-5.3) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GT | UML |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 22-10 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 11-5 |
| Home | 8-7 | 12-3 |
| Away | 4-9 | 10-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.0 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 72.2 |
| Massey | 0.1 (#176) | 13.0 (#10) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#98) | 1.58 (#34) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.00 (#107) | 2.34 (#36) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#145) | 0.250 (#287) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GT | UML |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 51.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 41.0 |
| OREB / G | 18.5 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 57.0% |
| TOV% | 13.7% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 43.5% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 12.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 34.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 66.2% | 76.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 18.2% |
Game Analysis
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