Betting Lines
| Spread | JOES -18.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | JOES -3300 STO +1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +44 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | JOES -24.9 (+19.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.1 (+23.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JOES -17.8 (+26.2) | 137.6 (+18.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -18.2 (+25.8) | 134.0 (+22.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -20.5 (+23.5) | 134.2 (+21.8) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JOES -22.4 (+21.6) | 137.3 (+18.7) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | STO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 4-27 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 2-14 |
| Home | 14-3 | 4-8 |
| Away | 3-10 | 0-19 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 63.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 76.1 |
| Massey | 2.0 (#134) | -12.3 (#342) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.00 (#76) | -0.40 (#210) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.46 (#71) | -0.63 (#220) |
| RPI | 0.701 (#61) | 0.556 (#129) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | STO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 35.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 28.9% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.00 | 0.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 42.1% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 24.1% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 20.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 14.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.4% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.0% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 63.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.5% | 15.6% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.