Betting Lines
| Spread | OU -16.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.0 Over |
| Money | OU -1600 TXST +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OU +39 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | OU -9.1 (+29.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.7 (+15.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OU -12.4 (+26.6) | 140.0 (+7.0) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OU -7.7 (+31.3) | 135.0 (+12.0) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OU -9.4 (+29.6) | 133.7 (+13.3) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OU -13.2 (+25.8) | 135.0 (+12.0) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OU | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 17-18 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 7-11 |
| Home | 14-4 | 9-4 |
| Away | 3-6 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 5.5 (#71) | 7.0 (#49) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.32 (#151) | 0.76 (#104) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.33 (#154) | 0.96 (#112) |
| RPI | 0.396 (#238) | 0.237 (#312) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OU | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.4% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 28.9% |
| REB / G | 42.5 | 48.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 20.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.4% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 27.2% |
| ORB% | 41.0% | 50.0% |
| FT Rate | 34.5% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 36.3% | 43.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 77.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.5% | 39.3% |
Game Analysis
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