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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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23–5 on winners spread MAE 10.1 28 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Florida International @ Miami +29.5 157.8 100% 80–86 ✓
Villanova @ Pennsylvania +6.9 143.2 74% 72–76 ✓
Siena @ American University +13.7 137.8 89% 58–78 ✓
The Citadel @ Presbyterian +17.8 133.9 95% 64–71 ✓
Central Michigan @ Florida State +30.4 156.3 100% 67–94 ✓
North Florida @ South Carolina State -6.9 148.7 26% 77–87 ✗
Stony Brook @ Duquesne +17.2 159.8 94% 63–85 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Butler +23.5 149.0 98% 47–81 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Massachusetts +19.1 150.6 96% 81–102 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Pittsburgh +24.6 141.6 99% 74–86 ✓
VMI @ South Carolina +15.9 154.7 93% 64–74 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Northwestern State +6.5 141.3 72% 96–70 ✗
Western Carolina @ Middle Tennessee +6.0 134.8 71% 66–64 ✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Central Arkansas +15.1 152.1 92% 85–83 ✗
Southern @ Arizona +26.3 170.2 99% 59–97 ✓
Stetson @ Houston +37.1 127.9 100% 48–79 ✓
Old Dominion @ Arkansas +16.1 149.9 93% 77–86 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Missouri +7.4 130.4 75% 50–68 ✓
South Dakota State @ Kansas State +10.3 158.0 82% 68–91 ✓
Oral Roberts @ Missouri State +6.4 139.3 72% 69–84 ✓
Rider @ Nebraska +19.9 142.3 96% 50–64 ✓
Xavier @ Purdue +20.0 139.3 97% 71–83 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ California +6.1 155.0 71% 63–83 ✓
Long Island University @ Pepperdine +27.1 151.8 99% 53–88 ✓
North Dakota State @ UC Davis -3.8 154.5 37% 53–68 ✗
Wisconsin @ Providence +8.5 154.6 78% 59–72 ✓
Wofford @ Tennessee +30.4 153.5 100% 61–82 ✓
Bucknell @ La Salle +11.7 142.2 86% 57–69 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.