Betting Lines
| Spread | PEPP -18.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 160.0 Under |
| Money | PEPP -2000 LIU +1050 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PEPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PEPP +35 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | PEPP -25.8 (+9.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.1 (-11.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PEPP -18.0 (+17.0) | 146.8 (-5.8) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PEPP -23.0 (+12.0) | 145.6 (-4.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PEPP -22.0 (+13.0) | 146.8 (-5.8) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PEPP | LIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 7-22 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 6-10 |
| Home | 9-8 | 5-4 |
| Away | 3-8 | 1-17 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 76.8 |
| Massey | 5.0 (#80) | -9.9 (#331) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.30 (#194) | -2.72 (#348) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.06 (#177) | -4.16 (#349) |
| RPI | 0.271 (#256) | 0.250 (#261) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PEPP | LIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.3% | 37.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 1.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.2% | 42.6% |
| TOV% | 22.2% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 60.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 81.5% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.4% | 29.1% |
Game Analysis
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