Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -17.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | PUR -1600 XAV +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +12 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -19.9 (-7.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.3 (+14.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -13.2 (-1.2) | 143.1 (+10.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -14.8 (-2.8) | 139.4 (+14.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -15.9 (-3.9) | 142.3 (+11.7) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 34-5 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 9-11 |
| Home | 16-0 | 11-7 |
| Away | 7-3 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 11-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.3 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 74.6 |
| Massey | 14.4 (#8) | 5.4 (#68) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.59 (#123) | 0.77 (#99) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.84 (#121) | 1.11 (#95) |
| RPI | 0.438 (#208) | 0.469 (#197) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 54.7% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 46.2% | 27.5% |
| REB / G | 46.0 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 2.09 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 65.0% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 28.2% | 26.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 34.1% | 37.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 65.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 7.4% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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