Betting Lines
| Spread | UCD -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | UCD -190 NDSU +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCD +15 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | NDSU -3.5 (+18.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.0 (-35.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NDSU -1.4 (+16.4) | 140.1 (-19.1) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCD -0.0 (+15.0) | 145.0 (-24.0) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NDSU -0.4 (+15.4) | 147.6 (-26.6) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NDSU -2.1 (+17.1) | 143.9 (-22.9) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 6, 2025 | UCD 80 – 68 NDSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCD | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 8-8 |
| Home | 10-6 | 10-4 |
| Away | 8-6 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 76.3 |
| Massey | -2.4 (#231) | 1.1 (#153) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.06 (#167) | 0.61 (#121) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.23 (#184) | 0.62 (#141) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#144) | 0.487 (#195) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCD | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.0% | 40.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 41.5% |
| REB / G | 27.0 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 16.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.0% | 46.5% |
| TOV% | 22.6% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 36.4% |
| FT Rate | 30.0% | 14.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.0% | 60.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.1% | 13.9% |
Game Analysis
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