Betting Lines
| Spread | KSU -9.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | KSU -480 SDST +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KSU +23 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | KSU -9.8 (+13.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.8 (+2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KSU -5.9 (+17.1) | 148.3 (+10.7) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | KSU -7.8 (+15.2) | 150.7 (+8.3) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KSU | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 12-4 |
| Home | 14-3 | 11-3 |
| Away | 2-9 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 5-5 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 72.0 |
| Massey | -6.5 (#299) | -5.4 (#280) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.53 (#227) | -1.68 (#323) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.88 (#238) | -2.32 (#321) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#144) | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KSU | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.3% | 50.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 42.1% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 26.0 |
| OREB / G | 19.5 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.8% | 57.1% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 41.9% | 20.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.3% | 55.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.2% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 60.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 31.6% |
Game Analysis
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