Betting Lines
| Spread | PITT -10.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.0 Over |
| Money | PITT -480 FGCU +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PITT +12 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | PITT -25.6 (-13.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.4 (+18.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PITT -20.5 (-8.5) | 144.0 (+16.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PITT -26.2 (-14.2) | 140.3 (+19.7) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PITT -22.2 (-10.2) | 139.4 (+20.6) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | FGCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 8-8 |
| Home | 13-5 | 9-5 |
| Away | 7-4 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 71.6 |
| Massey | 14.4 (#7) | -0.3 (#183) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.69 (#113) | -0.47 (#217) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.03 (#104) | -0.61 (#214) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#144) | 0.500 (#144) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | FGCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.5% | 38.7% |
| 3PT% | 39.3% | 38.2% |
| REB / G | 54.0 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 16.0 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.55 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.6% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 43.8% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 3.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 36.6% | 55.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 80.0% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.2% | 42.2% |
Game Analysis
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