Somehow I stayed thin, while the other guys got fat "Rush" - Big Audio Dynamite
Petersen Events Center · November 14, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread PITT -10.0 Home covered
O/U 144.0 Over
Money PITT -480 / FGCU +360
Model Predictions
Spread Total PITT win
Actual PITT +12 160 Won
Massey PITT -25.6 (-13.6) — —
Massey Totals — 141.4 (+18.6) —
Bradley-Terry — — 96% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 98% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML PITT -20.5 (-8.5) 144.0 (+16.0) 89% ✓
Baseline ML PITT -26.2 (-14.2) 140.3 (+19.7) 89% ✓
Baseline Plus ML PITT -22.2 (-10.2) 139.4 (+20.6) 89% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings PITT FGCU
Overall 22-11 14-18
Conference 12-8 8-8
Home 13-5 9-5
Away 7-4 5-10
Neutral 2-2 0-3
Last 5 2-0 0-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 75.6 69.2
Avg Pts Against 67.6 71.6
Massey 14.4 (#7) -0.3 (#183)
Bradley-Terry 0.69 (#113) -0.47 (#217)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.03 (#104) -0.61 (#214)
RPI 0.500 (#144) 0.500 (#144)
Shooting & Four Factors PITT FGCU
FG% 51.5% 38.7%
3PT% 39.3% 38.2%
REB / G 54.0 33.0
OREB / G 16.0 13.0
AST / TO 1.55 1.00
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 59.6% 49.2%
TOV% 15.0% 20.0%
ORB% 43.8% 33.3%
FT Rate 19.9% 3.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 36.6% 55.6%
Opp TOV% 16.1% 17.4%
DRB% 80.0% 74.1%
Opp FT Rate 12.2% 42.2%

Game Analysis

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