Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -32.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | HOU -100000 STET +3300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +31 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -36.5 (-5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.1 (-1.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -25.7 (+5.3) | 131.5 (-4.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -35.5 (-4.5) | 130.8 (-3.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -30.3 (+0.7) | 130.3 (-3.3) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | STET |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-5 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 11-5 |
| Home | 17-0 | 14-2 |
| Away | 7-3 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 57.6 | 75.6 |
| Massey | 19.0 (#1) | -6.6 (#301) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.30 (#49) | -1.34 (#309) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.17 (#41) | -2.43 (#326) |
| RPI | 0.938 (#11) | 0.000 (#315) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | STET |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 31.8% |
| 3PT% | 29.8% | 22.6% |
| REB / G | 50.0 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 19.5 | 17.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.84 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 37.1% |
| TOV% | 13.8% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 44.8% | 36.2% |
| FT Rate | 32.0% | 9.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 33.0% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 30.9% | 8.2% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 64.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.6% | 10.8% |
Game Analysis
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