I'm just like a turtle crawling out of my shell. "Boombastic" - Shaggy
Farris Center · November 14, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread UAPB -2.5 Home covered
O/U 154.5 Over
Money CARK +140 / UAPB -138
Model Predictions
Spread Total CARK win
Actual UAPB +2 168 Lost
Massey CARK -15.9 (-17.9)
Massey Totals 152.9 (+15.1)
Bradley-Terry 93%
Weighted B-T 98%
Baseline Plus ML CARK -6.0 (-8.0) 140.2 (+27.8) 61%
Baseline ML CARK -6.8 (-8.8) 139.7 (+28.3) 70%
Baseline Tuned ML CARK -6.5 (-8.5) 144.9 (+23.1) 76%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 8, 2024 UAPB 8478 CARK

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings CARK UAPB
Overall 9-23 13-18
Conference 5-11 8-10
Home 5-10 8-6
Away 4-13 5-12
Neutral 0-0 0-0
Last 5 0-1 0-1
Streak L5 L2
Avg Pts For 70.2 75.7
Avg Pts Against 80.3 83.7
Massey -2.9 (#240) -8.0 (#315)
Bradley-Terry -0.42 (#210) -1.13 (#297)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.62 (#215) -1.94 (#304)
RPI 0.500 (#144) 0.250 (#261)
Shooting & Four Factors CARK UAPB
FG% 33.3% 40.4%
3PT% 30.0% 27.6%
REB / G 31.0 29.0
OREB / G 11.0 11.0
AST / TO 0.75 0.50
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 38.3% 47.4%
TOV% 18.0% 20.9%
ORB% 26.2% 28.9%
FT Rate 11.7% 43.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 46.7% 65.6%
Opp TOV% 26.7% 17.3%
DRB% 50.0% 62.1%
Opp FT Rate 23.3% 26.6%

Game Analysis

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