Betting Lines
| Spread | UAPB -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | CARK +140 UAPB -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAPB +2 | 168 | Lost |
| Massey | CARK -15.9 (-17.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.9 (+15.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CARK -6.0 (-8.0) | 140.2 (+27.8) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CARK -6.8 (-8.8) | 139.7 (+28.3) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CARK -6.5 (-8.5) | 144.9 (+23.1) | 76% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 8, 2024 | UAPB 84 – 78 CARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CARK | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 8-10 |
| Home | 5-10 | 8-6 |
| Away | 4-13 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L5 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.3 | 83.7 |
| Massey | -2.9 (#240) | -8.0 (#315) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.42 (#210) | -1.13 (#297) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.62 (#215) | -1.94 (#304) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#144) | 0.250 (#261) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CARK | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 33.3% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 27.6% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 0.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 38.3% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 11.7% | 43.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 65.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.7% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 50.0% | 62.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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