Betting Lines
| Spread | CARK -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | UAPB +225 CARK -280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UAPB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAPB +6 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | CARK -8.5 (+14.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.6 (-1.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CARK -3.7 (+9.7) | 152.5 (+9.5) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CARK -4.1 (+10.1) | 152.3 (+9.7) | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CARK -4.8 (+10.8) | 153.2 (+8.8) | 28% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CARK -5.4 (+11.4) | 154.1 (+7.9) | 33% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 14, 2023 | UAPB 85 – 83 CARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UAPB | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-25 | 9-24 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 4-14 |
| Home | 4-8 | 7-7 |
| Away | 2-17 | 1-16 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 85.7 | 79.4 |
| Massey | -22.3 (#363) | -9.3 (#319) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.88 (#350) | -2.02 (#325) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.07 (#350) | -2.34 (#306) |
| RPI | 0.396 (#324) | 0.371 (#346) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UAPB | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 37.7% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 27.9% |
| REB / G | 28.6 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.66 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 44.3% |
| TOV% | 23.2% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 24.4% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 15.9% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 61.5% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.5% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 56.9% | 66.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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