Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -19.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | ARK -4000 ODU +1900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +9 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -16.3 (-7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.6 (+13.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -15.1 (-6.1) | 145.4 (+17.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -18.9 (-9.9) | 144.9 (+18.1) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | ODU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 3-15 |
| Home | 11-6 | 5-10 |
| Away | 2-7 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.8 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.8 | 77.6 |
| Massey | 7.4 (#40) | 2.0 (#136) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.78 (#96) | -0.50 (#223) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.15 (#91) | -0.63 (#217) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#144) | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | ODU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.9% | 50.9% |
| 3PT% | 39.6% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 45.0 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 0.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.2% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 21.7% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 38.6% | 10.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.2% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 79.3% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 39.6% |
Game Analysis
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