Betting Lines
| Spread | AMER -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | AMER -225 SIE +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMER +20 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | AMER -14.3 (+5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.3 (-1.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMER -5.2 (+14.8) | 138.9 (-2.9) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AMER -3.8 (+16.2) | 139.1 (-3.1) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMER -8.6 (+11.4) | 133.5 (+2.5) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 29, 2025 | SIE 59 – 55 AMER |
| Nov 13, 2024 | SIE 74 – 66 AMER |
| Dec 22, 2022 | SIE 64 – 61 AMER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMER | SIE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 4-28 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 3-17 |
| Home | 8-7 | 2-12 |
| Away | 8-9 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 60.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 74.4 |
| Massey | -4.6 (#268) | -8.1 (#316) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.89 (#273) | 0.83 (#94) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.31 (#275) | 0.81 (#124) |
| RPI | 0.312 (#243) | 0.812 (#23) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMER | SIE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.2% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 24.6% | 28.9% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.0% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 25.0% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 15.6% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 60.1% | 64.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 38.5% | 11.4% |
Game Analysis
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