Betting Lines
| Spread | AMER -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | SIE +115 AMER -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIE +8 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | SIE -7.4 (+0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.8 (+4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SIE -4.7 (+3.3) | 133.9 (+6.1) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIE -4.7 (+3.3) | 133.3 (+6.7) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIE -5.1 (+2.9) | 134.9 (+5.1) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 29, 2025 | SIE 59 – 55 AMER |
| Nov 14, 2023 | AMER 78 – 58 SIE |
| Dec 22, 2022 | SIE 64 – 61 AMER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIE | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 13-5 |
| Home | 9-5 | 14-2 |
| Away | 4-10 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 68.5 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#213) | 1.7 (#143) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.81 (#23) | 0.27 (#156) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.28 (#35) | 0.46 (#153) |
| RPI | 0.438 (#230) | 0.625 (#71) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIE | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.2% | 40.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 19.0 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.44 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.1% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 41.8% | 20.9% |
| FT Rate | 30.9% | 16.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 44.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.4% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 58.7% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.7% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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