Betting Lines
| Spread | MTSU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | MTSU -175 WCU +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WCU +2 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | MTSU -6.3 (-8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.6 (-4.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTSU -6.7 (-8.7) | 135.6 (-5.6) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MTSU -8.5 (-10.5) | 133.1 (-3.1) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTSU -7.1 (-9.1) | 131.9 (-1.9) | 72% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTSU | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 22-10 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-6 | 12-3 |
| Away | 1-10 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.4 | 75.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 69.8 |
| Massey | 1.0 (#158) | 5.6 (#66) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.68 (#115) | 1.85 (#24) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.84 (#120) | 2.57 (#25) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#197) | 0.750 (#30) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTSU | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.1% | 39.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 43.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.57 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.2% | 44.5% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 10.5% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 32.2% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 44.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 28.1% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.2% | 15.5% |
Game Analysis
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