Betting Lines
| Spread | ARIZ -31.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 164.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARIZ +38 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | ARIZ -27.0 (+11.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 169.9 (-13.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARIZ -22.3 (+15.7) | 163.6 (-7.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARIZ -27.5 (+10.5) | 160.9 (-4.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARIZ -27.6 (+10.4) | 159.7 (-3.7) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 12, 2022 | ARIZ 95 – 78 SOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARIZ | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 12-6 |
| Home | 15-1 | 11-2 |
| Away | 7-4 | 7-11 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 87.1 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 70.6 |
| Massey | 18.3 (#3) | 2.1 (#133) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.07 (#18) | 1.49 (#41) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.88 (#21) | 2.18 (#40) |
| RPI | 0.938 (#11) | 0.738 (#65) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARIZ | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.1% | 50.4% |
| 3PT% | 40.9% | 50.0% |
| REB / G | 47.0 | 29.5 |
| OREB / G | 18.5 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.79 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.4% | 58.8% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 46.2% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 10.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 60.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.0% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 77.0% | 60.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.0% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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