Betting Lines
| Spread | BUT -17.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | BUT -1700 ETSU +950 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUT +34 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | BUT -23.9 (+10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.7 (-20.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUT -18.9 (+15.1) | 146.3 (-18.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BUT -24.2 (+9.8) | 145.2 (-17.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUT -20.5 (+13.5) | 146.8 (-18.8) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUT | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 8-10 |
| Home | 12-6 | 10-4 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.8 | 70.8 |
| Massey | 13.2 (#10) | 0.3 (#171) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.87 (#89) | -0.93 (#277) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.35 (#77) | -1.32 (#276) |
| RPI | 0.688 (#75) | 0.000 (#315) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUT | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.9% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 42.5 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.52 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.1% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 34.7% | 13.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 35.5% | 58.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.6% | 16.9% |
Game Analysis
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