Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -30.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | UVA -20000 NCAT +3300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +29 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -33.0 (-4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.6 (-13.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -23.3 (+5.7) | 143.3 (-12.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -31.0 (-2.0) | 143.3 (-12.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -31.0 (-2.0) | 143.1 (-12.1) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 5-13 |
| Home | 15-2 | 4-7 |
| Away | 5-6 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L10 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.9 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 59.8 | 77.9 |
| Massey | 11.0 (#20) | -11.4 (#340) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.04 (#21) | -0.70 (#252) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.01 (#22) | -1.01 (#256) |
| RPI | 0.938 (#8) | 0.500 (#153) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 34.1% |
| 3PT% | 42.5% | 27.4% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 28.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.14 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.8% | 40.7% |
| TOV% | 10.8% | 11.6% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 19.8% |
| FT Rate | 36.2% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.6% | 61.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.9% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 64.6% | 52.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 13.3% |
Game Analysis
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